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Mistaking yourself for the market

 

Don’t force romantic breakthroughs into systematic processes!

(Note: this is the second of two pieces that discuss J&J's Aug 2003 launch of the iBOT 3000.  Click here to go to the first piece.)

 The iBOT 3000, J&J’s breakthrough wheelchair, is the technological father of the Segway:  the gyro-balancing technologies that were developed for the iBOT made the Segway possible.  Yet this parent is younger than its child.  While the start of the iBOT’s development preceded the Segway’s by several years, its gestation was almost twice as long – the Segway launched two years before the iBOT.  

 Why did the iBOT take so much longer to launch than the Segway?  One part of the explanation lies in the mismatch between a romantic product and a systematic development process.

 Both the iBOT and the Segway represent embodiments of “romantic” breakthrough products.  By romantic, I’m referring to products that are “visionary … imaginative but impractical,” to quote from The American Heritage Dictionary.

 Romantic product developers, like Dean Kamen (or Steve Jobs at Apple or Jeff Hawkins at Palm) are passionate about changing the world.  Here’s a short description of Dean Kamen from the Segway web-site: 

 “He's an inventor whose rebellion against convention has consistently yielded smart solutions… his other great passion [is] cultivating the next generation of scientists and engineers” (my italics).

 Compare this self-description to The American Heritage Dictionary’s definition of romanticism:

 “An artistic and intellectual movement originating in Europe in the late 18th century and characterized by a heightened interest in nature, emphasis on the individual’s expression of emotion and imagination, departure from the attitudes and forms of classicism, and rebellion against established social rules and conventions.”

 Not all breakthrough products are romantic.  “Systematic” breakthroughs represent the other major category of breakthrough product.  The table below provides some points of difference between systematic and romantic breakthroughs. 

Romantic

Systematic

Individual – driven

Corporate - driven

Idiosyncratic

Structured

Change the world

Profitable growth

Examples:

n      Segway

n      Palm

n      Early Apple Computers

n      Tour Easy Recumbent Bicycles

Examples:

n      DVD Players

n      Pentium processors

n      IBM PC

n      Microsoft Windows NT

n      Tablet PC

Estimated success rate less than 5%

Estimated success rate less than 20%

 

 Consider the DVD player as an example of a systematic breakthrough.  In 1991, Pioneer electronics began the development of DVDs to replace its laser disk.  By 1996, when the first DVD player was launched, the four major manufacturers had agreed on common standards.  By 2002, the DVD was the fastest growing new consumer technology in history. 

 There was no Steve Jobs or Dean Kamen in the invention of the DVD.  Rather, it was driven by the understanding and vision of a few large corporations – Sony, Toshiba, Philips, and Pioneer. 

The people who drive the world of systematic breakthroughs are people like David Cutler, the project manager behind the development of Microsoft Windows NT.  Here’s a description of Cutler from Pascal Zachary’s 1994 book Showstopper:

“Cutler was the classic programmer.  He was single-minded, obsessive and competitive … beyond his software assignment at hand, he displayed no other intellectual passions."

 Romantic breakthroughs, which tend to defy convention, are poorly suited to corporate development environments, which tend to impose systems and controls.   Most romantic breakthroughs won’t pass the market tests that a corporate new product process will impose. 

 J&J spent eight years and $150 million developing its iBOT wheelchair.  The development timeline at the website of the J&J division highlights the tension between this romantic product and the demands of a corporate development environment. 

 In 1995, after partnering with Dean Kamen’s research group, the first (and second and third) things the J&J folks did in their systematic development approach was market research.  They ran focus groups on “unmet needs” for those with disabilities.  They ran focus groups on ergonomics.  They had users take the product home and try it – which means they had prototypes already built in 1995/96.  All this market research took them through 1996, at which point development seems to slow down.  In 2000, for example, the timeline records no activity on the project.

 I believe that the reason this product took so long and cost so much was because the corporate system didn’t know what to do with it.  It was not meeting the tests required of J&J’s own processes, yet the vision of a “stair climbing wheelchair,” and perhaps the passion of romantics like Dean Kamen, made the company reluctant to let it go.

 Eight years from conception, J&J is the proud father of a new breakthrough product.   It needn’t have taken this long: if the iBOT product had been matched up with a lighter, more iterative approach, it would have launched earlier and with lower investment. 

 More information:

 

  1. Pioneer’s recounting of the DVD development story: http://www.pioneeraus.com.au/dvdrecording/overview/history/
  2. The iBOT home page: http://www.independencenow.com/ibot/index.html
  3. Tour Easy Recumbent Bicycles, one of my favorite romantic products:  www.toureasy.com
  4. This is the second update on the iBOT.  For last week’s update, an assessment of iBOT’s chances for success, go here: http://www.biz-architect.com/ibot_3000.htm

 

 

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