Electric
vehicles crossing the chasm
17 Oct
05
"We couldn't afford
to lose any more money on an [electric vehicle] program that appealed to
a very small number of people … As great as it was, [our EV-1] would go
about 100 miles and take about six to eight hours to charge."
GM spokesman Dave Barthmuss in The New
York Times
While GM and Ford have cancelled their
EV development efforts, the vehicles still have tremendous appeal to a
passionate but small group of enthusiasts. With $660,000, for example,
you can buy a Venturi Fétish Electric Coupe, manufactured by
Monaco-based Venturi Motorcars.
Venturi Fétish Electric
Coupe - $660,000
Will electric vehicles
ever become mainstream products? Here are two ways in which EVs could
“cross the chasm,” and move from their current fringe position toward a
more mainstream alternative to internal combustion engines.
1. Crossing the
chasm via hybrid conversion
As battery technology improves, hybrid
vehicles could move to electric power as their primary source, with
internal combustion as backup.
Ed
Tuttle, a Managing Principal at Analysis Group, Inc., has been tracking
electric vehicle evolution since 2000. He recently sent me an email
discussing new developments:
“There
is a lot of coverage of so-called PHEVs these days, plug-in hybrid
electric vehicles, which allow a hybrid to be plugged in for charging
and to run on battery power only.
“Prius
conversions [to PHEVs] are becoming more common. Daimler-Chrysler has a
Sprinter van that does this, allowing it to run electric-only in
warehouses or environmentally sensitive central business districts in
Europe, for example.
Daimler-Chrysler’s
Dual-Powered Sprinter Van
“In
principle, the idea of a battery electric vehicle with internal
combustion engine back-up feels like a natural direction for the hybrids
to take as battery capacity and charge times improve but still fall
short of something you'd want to rely on exclusively.”
2. Supply shocks
forcing customers to cross the chasm
Researchers like Joe Lassiter at
Harvard Business School maintain that innovations get adopted by
pragmatic users because of a major dislocation in their operating
environment. In these situations, users have no choice but to change
even if the new technology remains imperfect.
Richard Weddle, of Weddle Consulting,
sent along an article from the Australian website CarPoint Australia
that lays the groundwork for such a supply shock for owners of hybrid
autos. The shock doesn’t come from gas shortages, but rather is based on
the limitations of current battery technologies.
It turns out that the
Nickel Metal Hydride battery pack that provides the Toyota Prius with
its electric power has a useful life of about 8 years. The current
costs of replacing this battery pack are approximately $2400 US, and
Toyota has no plans to make these replacements on a routine basis.
Their thinking was that the Prius had a useful life of eight years.
As a result, if the
battery dies on your Toyota Prius, the car will no longer operate, and
Toyota service, if available, will be expensive. When this happens, you
have no choice but to make a change. You may choose to junk the car.
Alternatively, you could choose to replace the old battery of your 2004
Prius with a new one that incorporates 8 more years of technological
improvement.
With the continued
expansion of the number of hybrid vehicles, this creates an opportunity
for aftermarket hybrid battery replacement.
These new replacement
batteries may have enough power to enable you to convert your Prius to a
PHEV -- a plug-in hybrid that runs primarily on electric power, and uses
the internal combustion engine as a backup.
In this scenario, hybrids such as the
Toyota Prius and Ford Escape become stepping stones to practical
electric vehicles. When hybrid owners are faced with a dead battery,
they have to do something, and for many, it may be practical to convert.
More Information:
-
Venturi all-electric sports car
- Daimler Chrysler’s dual-drive
Sprinter van.
-
The limited battery life in a hybrid car, from the Australian
website CarPoint Australia.
- Richard Weddle heads up
Weddle Consulting.
- Ed Tuttle is a Managing Principal at
Analysis Group, Inc.
This is the second part of a series on innovation
and electric vehicles.
The first part looked at lead users in California.
