Electric Vehicles and Early Adopters
10
October 05
Jamais Contente (French for “never
satisfied”)
In 1899, the Jamais Contente electric
vehicle broke the world speed record by travelling at 105.8 km/h. At
the beginning of the 20th century, about 38 percent of all
motor-powered vehicles were electric, and only 22 percent used gasoline
(the remaining 40 percent were powered by steam).
Almost 100 years later, in 1990,
California passed a state mandate requiring that two percent of
automakers’ sales had to be zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) by 1998. This
percentage was scheduled to rise to 10 percent by 2003.
Electric vehicles
represented the only way for automakers to meet the California mandate.
While the auto companies protested vigorously, they also began leasing
electric vehicles to California drivers.
According to The New
York Times, there were about 10,000 electric vehicles leased in
California between 1996 and 2003. Ford, Honda, and Toyota modified
existing models to make them electric. General Motors created a new
electric vehicle, the EV-1.
GM’s EV-1, 1999
In 2003, under legal
pressure from General Motors and Daimler Chrysler, the state of
California relaxed its zero emissions requirement. Now auto companies
can meet the mandate by selling gas-electric hybrids, such as the Toyota
Prius or the Ford Escape hybrid.
GM and Ford
want their electric vehicles back. Because the vehicles were
leased rather than sold, the auto companies remain the owners and are
able to reposess them. They do not want to sell these vehicles to the
current lessees, citing concerns about maintenance and reliability as
the vehicles age. GM is dismantling almost all of its EV-1 autos.
Many of the California
electric vehicle drivers don’t want to return them. They are committed
to, and passionate about, their electric vehicles. For example,
Alexandra Paul, a television actress and EV-1 lessor, was arrested at a
Burbank, California protest against General Motors’ EV policy -- she
locked herself in a car and kept GM company trucks from transporting the
electric vehicles the company had reclaimed. Bill Korthof, who runs a
solar panel installation business, is suing Ford so that he may be able
to buy his electric Ford Ranger.
"I am personally, morally offended by the
idea that they would destroy these functional vehicles that have such a
positive environmental impact,"
Bill Korthof’s lawyer, Nora Quinn, in
The New York Times
These EV users are the
kind of customers most innovators would want to have
-- what author Geoffrey Moore refers to as “enthusiasts” and
“visionaries.” They accept the
limitations of the current technology – limited driving range and long
recharging times – because of their wholehearted commitment to the
technology’s possibilities.
If the auto companies were
to build on this base of technology enthusiasts, they would keep
improving these electric vehicles until they had strong appeal to the
larger group of customers that Moore calls the “pragmatists”. Perhaps
electric vehicles could serve the pragmatists as an additional car used
for short trips, for example.
The trouble is, most auto
companies don’t want to pursue this kind of innovation. Electric
vehicles have been a money-losing proposition. Toyota, for example,
modified its RAV sport utility vehicle to make it electric powered and
briefly sold it for about $42,000. It cost the company more than
$100,000 a unit to make, according to The New York Times.
After spending more than
$1 billion on its electric vehicle research program, GM has abandoned it
and is now making substantial research investments in hydrogen and
hybrids.
“We couldn't afford to lose any more
money on a program that appealed to a very small number of people. As
great as it was, it would go about 100 miles and take about six to eight
hours to charge.”
General Motors Spokesman Dave Barthmuss in The New York Times
The electric vehicle’s
appeal continues for a few Japanese auto firms. Mitsubishi has said it
is developing an electric vehicle for sale in Japan by the end of the
decade, and Subaru is going to start testing a prototype EV in March.
Battery performance is the
major stumbling block for electric vehicles. Fuji Heavy industries, the
parent of Subaru, is working on developing a high efficiency, high
performance battery. As gasoline costs rise, of course, electric
vehicles become more attractive. And as gas-electric hybrid sales
increase, the demand for high performance batteries increases as well.
It may be true, as GM and Ford contend,
that stand-alone electric vehicles will never be economically viable.
The current legal battles in California, between EV users and
manufacturers, demonstrate the passion and commitment of the early
adopters.
But these few early adopters cannot
make EVs a profitable business for the auto companies. The larger group
of more practical users need a complete solution before they will buy.
Perhaps GM and Ford were too early into a market that will develop more
fully over the next decade. If that happens, the new electric vehicles
will come from companies like Mitsubishi and Subaru.
More information:
- A couple of histories of electric vehicles –
from
Murdoch University in Australia, and from the
Electric Auto Association.
- A recent story, Sept 29, 2005, on the
committed owners of electric vehicles in California from
The New York Times
- Geoffrey Moore’s books
Crossing the Chasm and
Inside the Tornado are available at Amazon.com.
